Saturday, March 15, 2008

WW Boys: Team of the Year, season wrap-up

As we approach the close of the Indiana high school basketball season, it's time to dole out the Winless Watch hardware.

We ended up with a total of two winless teams in the state on the boys' side. First, some thoughts from my previous boys WW post, on February 21. With my new comments in bold, I said then:

With one regular-season game left against a New Haven team that's riding a 6-game losing streak of its own, #3 Adams Central could parlay its near-miss against a not-bad South Adams team last weekend into its first win of the season.

(It didn't.)

It'd better come this weekend for the Jets, because they drew 20-0 Bluffton in the first round of the sectional. Before you think, "Uh-oh – mismatch of the century," keep in mind that Bluffton beat the Jets by only 13 earlier in the season.

(And Bluffton beat the Jets by 23 in the sectional … and then saw its undefeated season come to an end in the sectional championship game. Adams Central wore them out!)

#2 Whiting has had four of its 19 losses to date by less than 10 points, but when they've been uncompetitive, they've really been uncompetitive: five of their other losses have been by 40 or more. The Oilers have one game left as well, tonight against a 12-7 Hammond Clark squad that already beat them by 34 back around Thanksgiving.

(A little better showing the second time around against Hammond Clark, as Whiting lost by only 18.)

Whiting will face the winner of 16-4 Morgan Township and 11-9 Kouts in the bye game of the Kouts Sectional next Friday night.

(… and lost to Morgan Township by 35.)

The best opportunity, though, for a winless team to break their skid this weekend – and maybe gain some momentum heading into sectional – is on Saturday night (weather permitting), as #1 Shoals hits the road to face a 3-win New Harmony team that is only one spot above the Jug Rox in the Sagarin ratings.

(Then I talked about all of the common opponents they shared, and it appeared that Shoals had the edge on New Harmony on that basis alone.)

Add it all up, and you've got to hope if you're Shoals that the ice storm that walloped far southwest Indiana this week doesn't wreak havoc with the scheduling of the game.

(They played the game, and Shoals - full disclosure: Winless Watch's alma mater – defeated New Harmony 50-42 to get off the Winless Watch list for the season. Congratulations to the Jug Rox!)

(Oh – Shoals' sectional draw didn't go much better than Adams Central's; they drew 18-2 North Daviess in the opener on Tuesday night.)

(Irrelevant, since they already scored a win, but the Jug Rox showed some improvement since their 49-point loss to the Cougars in November, losing to the Class A #1 team by only 34 the second time around. North Daviess then lost its next game to Barr-Reeve – again, Shoals wore them out!)

******

The Jug Rox victory on February 23 paves the way for a new Winless Watch #1, who will also score the Winless Watch Team of the Year trophy. The tale of the tape between Whiting and Adams Central:

Records: Whiting 0-21, Adams Central 0-20
Average margin of defeat: Whiting 25.7 ppg, Adams Central 15.6 ppg
Worst margin of defeat: Whiting 49 (lost 88-39 to Hammond Noll), Adams Central 33 (lost 78-45 to Parkway, Ohio)
Number of defeats under 10 points: Whiting 4, Adams Central 4
Strength of schedule ranking (according to Sagarin): Whiting 317, Adams Central 207
Opponents' records: Whiting 219-256, Adams Central 233-211
Sagarin ranking: Whiting 393, Adams Central 350
Calpreps.com ranking: Whiting 414, Adams Central 380
Calpreps.com predicted final score (neutral court): Adams Central 58, Whiting 45

Whiting had a worse margin of defeat against a weaker schedule, it appears. On the other hand, they are a Class A school, while Adams Central is a 2A school and should theoretically play a stronger schedule. But the Oilers played only 5 games against schools in its class, while the remainder of its games were against larger schools. Adams Central, meanwhile, played 4 games against Class A competition.

Whiting lost its 5 games to Class A competition by 19.8 ppg, while Adams Central lost its 4 games to Class A opponents by 14 ppg.

Whiting played 8 games against Class 2A schools (Adams Central's class), and lost those by an average of 25.6 ppg. When Adams Central played in its own class, it lost those 8 games by 12.5 ppg.

Whichever way you slice it, it appears that Whiting has the lower hand in every category, save for one:

Both teams played one game against an out-of-state opponent. Whiting lost by only a basket to Grant Park, IL, while Adams Central was dealt its worst defeat of the season, a 33-point loss to Parkway, OH.

Despite the fact that the Oilers represented their state a lot better than the Jets did, my provincial loyalty isn't enough to pull them from the top of the list, unfortunately. The Whiting Oilers – your 2007-08 Winless Watch Boys Team of the Year!

Friday, March 7, 2008

Sectional review:

So, how'd Winless Watch do in picking sectional titlists? Not that bad and not that well, really.

I said:

WW says to look for Seeger to win its first sectional championship since 1978.


Uhhhh ... close. Seeger fell on Saturday night to Carroll (Flora) - a school that, with the win, won its first sectional championship, so congrats to them! - but the Patriots' drought shall extend to at least 31 years. (And 18-3 looked so much better than 9-12!)

The longest drought broken on Saturday didn't belong to any of the teams with the 25+ year droughts I wrote about last week. Instead, it appears that the longest dry spell snapped was 23 years, by two teams: Daleville and Culver, who both won their first sectional crowns since 1985 last Saturday night.

On the positive side of the ledger, I also indicated that Indianapolis Lutheran was a virtual lock to win its first sectional. And they made it happen, downing University in a sectional final delayed two days due to University's girls playing in their state championship game on Saturday morning. Congrats to the Saints!

Another team I had stated that had a good chance to win its first sectional was Borden, and they succeeded by beating South Central (Elizabeth) on Saturday. While they play a solid Barr-Reeve team in the regional opener this week, don't put it past the Braves to advance; they did, after all, put the only blemish on #2 Orleans' otherwise-perfect record this season.

With the exception of the previously-mentioned Carroll (Flora), all of the other squads who were still alive for their first sectional championship last Saturday night lost. Winless Watch called the Covenant Christian defeat at the hands of Tri-West last week (though I believe Covenant was still ahead in the game's final seconds), while New Harmony, Churubusco and Fort Wayne Canterbury also suffered defeats to put an end to their seasons.

This leaves a grand total of 21 "legacy schools" who have yet to win a boys basketball sectional.

Last week, I listed five other teams aside from Seeger who had a chance to break their long sectional droughts. Morton Memorial, Wabash, Elwood, Union (Modoc) and Union County all fell in their respective sectional championship games.

Also last week, I listed all of the teams who, despite winning 5 or fewer games during the regular season, were still alive for a sectional championship - Elkhart Central, Loogootee, Tri-Central, New Prairie, Fort Wayne Elmhurst, Vincennes Lincoln, Wabash, North White, Springs Valley and New Harmony. They all lost, and the Winless Watch kiss of death is alive and well. Insert various levels of sadness and disgust here.

For what it's worth, there are still a handful of teams alive in the tournament who still have overall losing records on the season despite having won two or three games in their sectionals. The best story of all of these is probably Class 4A's 11-13 Terre Haute North. They are coached by Jim Jones, whose biggest claim to fame is that he coached Larry Bird in high school.

You probably couldn't have found a team with less momentum entering sectionals than the Patriots, having lost 9 of their last 11 regular-season games (including a weather-induced forfeit to Lawrence North on the season's final weekend that school officials refused to make up on Saturday or Monday). But Jones announced before sectional week that this season, his 45th on the bench, would be his last; duly inspired, his Patriots reeled off three victories in the sectional against teams with a combined record of 40-21 (including a 17-3 Plainfield team that many had pegged as the prohibitive favorite of the sectional).

Three other teams, all in Class 2A, enter the regional round with sub-.500 records: Garrett's 10-12 Railroaders, first-time sectional champs Carroll (Flora), also at 10-12, and Tri-West (11-12). And a handful of other squads still alive in the tourney raised their records above .500 during sectional week - 12-11 Peru, 12-10 Rushville, 12-11 Culver, and 13-10 Kankakee Valley.

I'll check in once more before season's end with the final Winless Watch rankings and the Winless Watch Boys' Team of the Year.

Saturday, March 1, 2008

Simulated 2007-08 IHSAA Boys Single-Class Basketball Tournament

A couple of years ago, I undertook probably one of the most time-consuming, yet satisfying tasks I've ever done since I started blogging.

I had discovered the game predictor at calpreps.com - an invaluable resource that's going away, unfortunately - and had an idea to take Jeff Sagarin's ideal single-class sectional lineup, perform a random draw and then simulate an entire IHSAA single-class tournament, the kind that we had in the old days before the state athletic commission decided it would be better for there to be four winners at the end of the season instead of one. You can find the results of the 2005-06 tournament here.

Since, as I mentioned earlier, calpreps.com's high school basketball power rankings and matchup predictor are going away, this will probably be the last one of these that I do. Which is too bad - it'd be nice to either hand calpreps.com a big check* and say "keep doing this, please," or hand calpreps.com a big check* and say, "I'd like to purchase one simulator, please." But they're focusing solely on high school football after this school year is up, and bully for them, I guess.

* - or a small check

Anyway, to the task at hand:

I took Sagarin's single-class sectional breakout from 2003, which took all 384 IHSAA teams and put them into 64 geographically "correct" sectionals so that no team would have to travel more than 20 or 25 miles to play in a sectional. The math was great - 6 teams per sectional, 64 sectionals; it worked out perfectly.

This year, however, 398 teams are taking part in the postseason tournament, so I had to make a best guess at the 14 additional teams that have joined the IHSAA since then. This made for a handful of 7- and 8-team sectionals (the sectional at Noblesville threatened to be a 9-team sectional, but I moved one of the new teams - University - to another Indianapolis-area sectional). Also, there was one 5-team sectional, in Gary - Sagarin's 2003 lineup included Gary Mann, which has since closed; if Bowman Academy were eligible for the state tournament this year, they would have replaced Gary Mann, but there are no other new schools in the area.

This time, unlike the 2005-06 simulated tournament, I put a little more effort into making some geographically correct post-sectional rounds, actually examining a map and putting the sectional winners into regionals and semistates that made a little more sense than my previous effort. If I put your school into a regional or semistate that was, in your view, ridiculous, I'm sorry - but likely, the end result would have been the same.

The game predictor does not take into account injuries, Cinderella stories or any other intangible stuff that makes single-elimination tournaments such a joy to watch (see also: March Madness). It provides cold, hard scores based on cold, hard results to that point in the season. And, as you might expect, the results are a little top-heavy - only 3 Class A schools made it past the sectional round, and none past the regionals; only 10 Class 2A schools made it past the sectional round, and none past the regionals. And the Final Four ended up being four Class 4A schools, as you might expect.

The calpreps.com predictor provides predicted results for three scenarios: Team A's home court, Team B's home court, and neutral site. Regardless of tournament site (which I selected based on the best I could remember about the old single-class sectionals), I selected the "neutral site" scenario. During the two-game single-day tournaments that would take place at the regional and semistate rounds, I had considered making the first game winner the home team in the evening, since they would be more rested and have maybe a slight edge, but for consistency's sake, I stuck with the neutral-site results.

Without further ado, here are the results this year's simulated Indiana high school single-class boys' basketball tournament. Enjoy, and wonder "what if?".

Round 1: Sectionals (398 teams, 64 sites)

Angola
Lakeland 65, Prairie Heights 45
Fremont 72, Howe Military 44
Lakeland 59, Fremont 49
Angola 59, Hamilton 40
Lakeland 57, Angola 52 (final)

East Chicago
Hammond Noll 68, Hammond Gavit 53
East Chicago 80, Hammond Clark 54
East Chicago 83, Hammond Noll 66
Hammond 76, Whiting 42
East Chicago 83, Hammond 61 (final)

Elkhart
Elkhart
Memorial 62, Concord 53
Mishawaka 58, Elkhart Central 53
Jimtown 55, Elkhart Christian 39
Jimtown 43, Mishawaka 30
Penn 58, Elkhart Memorial 51
Penn 43, Jimtown 41 (final)

Michigan City
LaPorte 75, Michigan City Marquette 57
South Central (Union Mills) 59, New Prairie 53
LaPorte 66, South Central (Union Mills) 52
Michigan City 68, Westville 37
Michigan City 66, LaPorte 63 (final)

South Bend
SB Adams 65, Mishawaka Marian 47
SB St. Joseph's 63, SB Riley 60
SB St. Joseph's 61, SB Adams 53
SB Clay 64, SB Washington 61
SB St. Joseph's 58, SB Clay 57 (final)

Hobart
Gary Wirt 68, River Forest 34
Hobart 63, Gary Roosevelt 62
Gary Wirt 64, Lake Station 43
Gary Wirt 63, Hobart 55 (final)

Goshen
Westview 59, Goshen 50
Wawasee 54, Fairfield 53
Westview 67, Wawasee 54
Northridge 61, Bethany Christian 42
Westview 59, Northridge 57 (final)

Gary
Calumet 71, Griffith 58
Gary West 66, Hammond Morton 35
Gary West 65, Calumet 54
Munster 58, Highland 36
Gary West 51, Munster 49 (final)

Valparaiso
Valparaiso 45, Wheeler 40
Morgan Township 52, Portage 51
Valparaiso 42, Morgan Township 38
Chesterton 75, Washington Township 28
Chesterton 59, Valparaiso 43 (final)

Merrillville
Andrean 69, Hanover Central 68
Crown Point 64, Gary Wallace 57
Crown Point 75, Andrean 49
Merrillville 54, Lake Central 45
Merrillville 53, Crown Point 52 (final)

Plymouth
NorthWood 64, LaVille 38
Triton 53, Bremen 42
Triton 53, NorthWood 50
Plymouth 64, John Glenn 45
Plymouth 52, Triton 46 (final)

East Noble
DeKalb 51, Eastside 34
Leo 64, Lakewood Park 56
DeKalb 52, Leo 42
East Noble 53, Garrett 43
DeKalb 44, East Noble 38 (final)

Warsaw
Columbia City 54, Central Noble 35
Whitko 57, West Noble 51
Columbia City 50, Whitko 42
Warsaw 73, Churubusco 37
Warsaw 54, Columbia City 43 (final)

Lowell
Boone Grove 52, Lowell 50
Kankakee Valley 66, Kouts 64
Boone Grove 62, Kankakee Valley 61
Hebron 65, North Newton 49
Boone Grove 60, Hebron 53 (final)

Knox
Knox 50, West Central 43
North Judson 51, LaCrosse 47
Knox 57, North Judson 47
Winamac 57, Oregon-Davis 55
Knox 66, Winamac 45 (final)

Tippecanoe Valley
Rochester 66, Culver Military 31
Tippecanoe Valley 61, Culver 45
Rochester 59, Tippecanoe Valley 58
Argos 51, Caston 33
Rochester 54, Argos 44 (final)

Fort Wayne I
Fort Wayne Dwenger 67, Fort Wayne North 56
Fort Wayne Snider 68, Fort Wayne Concordia 56
Fort Wayne Dwenger 63, Fort Wayne Snider 60
Fort Wayne Northrop 48, Carroll (Fort Wayne) 47
Fort Wayne Dwenger 63, Fort Wayne Northrop 49 (final)

Heritage
New Haven 52, Heritage 50
Harding 70, Woodlan 44
Harding 70, New Haven 50
Fort Wayne Blackhawk 85, Fort Wayne Keystone 61
Harding 74, Fort Wayne Blackhawk 61 (final)

Fort Wayne II
Fort Wayne Wayne 60, Fort Wayne Elmhurst 53
Homestead 67, Fort Wayne Canterbury 53
Fort Wayne Wayne 57, Homestead 56
Fort Wayne South 63, Fort Wayne Luers 62
Fort Wayne South 63, Fort Wayne Wayne 50 (final)

Huntington
Huntington North 80, White's 44
Southwood 63, Wabash 54
Southwood 68, Huntington North 59
Northfield 56, Manchester 46
Northfield 54, Southwood 52 (final)

Twin Lakes
Tri-County 51, Rensselaer Central 48
Frontier 63, North White 47
Tri-County 56, Frontier 48
Twin Lakes 57, South Newton 52
Twin Lakes 53, Tri-County 48 (final)

Logansport
Logansport 61, Pioneer 51
Lewis Cass 50, Maconaquah 44
Lewis Cass 51, Logansport 44
North Miami 56, Peru 53
North Miami 48, Lewis Cass 45 (final)

Bellmont
Bluffton 53, Norwell 39
Southern Wells 57, Adams Central 48
Bluffton 64, Southern Wells 43
Bellmont 63, South Adams 58
Bluffton 60, Bellmont 49 (final)

Marion
Marion 76, Blackford 37
Oak Hill 75, Eastbrook 52
Marion 70, Oak Hill 57
Mississinewa 65, Lakeview Christian 52
Marion 73, Mississinewa 45 (final)

Lafayette
Lafayette Jeff 80, Delphi 46
Lafayette Central Catholic 63, West Lafayette 49
Lafayette Jeff 73, Lafayette Central Catholic 65
McCutcheon 58, Harrison (W. Lafayette) 42
Lafayette Jeff 69, McCutcheon 55 (final)

Kokomo
Tipton 67, Tri-Central 41
Kokomo 63, Eastern (Greentown) 42
Tipton 54, Kokomo 52
Northwestern 68, Taylor 56
Tipton 57, Northwestern 56 (final)

Frankfort
Clinton Central 54, Clinton Prairie 51
Western 57, Carroll (Flora) 48
Western 56, Clinton Central 50
Frankfort 74, Rossville 63
Frankfort 59, Western 52 (final)

Alexandria
Anderson Highland 62, Madison-Grant 56
Frankton 55, Alexandria 46
Anderson Highland 59, Frankton 55
Wes-Del 57, Elwood 54
Anderson Highland 62, Wes-Del 55 (final)

Benton Central
Seeger 63, Covington 44
Benton Central 60, Attica 47
Seeger 62, Benton Central 56
Fountain Central 58, North Vermillion 49
Seeger 66, Fountain Central 48 (final)

Jay County
Jay County 65, Monroe Central 50
Winchester 77, Randolph Southern 37
Winchester 54, Jay County 52
Wapahani 49, Union City 41
Winchester 59, Wapahani 46 (final)

Muncie
Delta 45, Yorktown 44
Muncie Central 56, Muncie South 51
Muncie Central 49, Delta 47
Cowan 53, Muncie Burris 46
Muncie Central 69, Cowan 41 (final)

Noblesville
Guerin Catholic 65, Hamilton Heights 62
Noblesville 58, Westfield 42
Fishers 75, Sheridan 44
Carmel 72, Hamilton Southeastern 59
Noblesville 60, Guerin Catholic 54
Carmel 74, Fishers 52
Carmel 66, Noblesville 49 (final)

Crawfordsville
Western Boone 60, Lebanon 50
Crawfordsville 60, Southmont 58
Western Boone 65, Crawfordsville 55
North Montgomery 70, Tri-West 55
North Montgomery 67, Western Boone 61 (final)

Anderson
Lapel 62, Shenandoah 47
Mount Vernon (Fortville) 59, Liberty Christian 46
Pendleton Heights 64, Daleville 48
Pendleton Heights 51, Mount Vernon (Fortville) 43
Anderson 65, Lapel 51
Anderson 56, Pendleton Heights 51 (final)

New Castle
Union (Modoc)56, Tri 49
New Castle 67, Blue River 44
New Castle 72, Union (Modoc) 31
Cambridge City Lincoln 70, Hagerstown 60
New Castle 70, Cambridge City Lincoln 40 (final)

Broad Ripple
Indianapolis Broad Ripple 67, Park Tudor 57
Indianpolis Pike 78, Indianapolis Tindley 37
North Central (Indianapolis) 77, Indianapolis Howe 72
Zionsville 50, Indianapolis Brebeuf 46
Indianapolis Pike 71, Indianapolis Broad Ripple 66
North Central (Indianapolis) 70, Zionsville 54
North Central (Indianapolis) 71, Indianpolis Pike 64

Lawrence North
Indianapolis Chatard 81, Indianapolis International 34
Lawrence North 69, Heritage Christian 45
Indianapolis Cathedral 73, Lawrence Central 45
Indianapolis Cathedral 59, Lawrence North 58
Indianpolis Chatard 62, Indianapolis Arlington 54
Indianapolis Cathedral 65, Indianapolis Chatard 54 (final)

Ben Davis
Indianapolis Northwest 65, Covenant Christian 51
Ben Davis 66, Indianapolis Ritter 63
Brownsburg 66, Speedway 38
Brownsburg 65, Ben Davis 56
Indianapolis Northwest 77, Bethesda Christian 43
Brownsburg 56, Indianapolis Northwest 54 (final)

Rushville
Rushville 73, Knightstown 60
Eastern Hancock 67, Morton Memorial 49
Rushville 70, Eastern Hancock 63
Greenfield-Central 66, Morristown 56
Rushville 76, Greenfield-Central 63 (final)

Indianapolis Tech
Indianapolis Roncalli 61, Indianapolis Tech 48
Indianapolis Manual 60, Indianapolis Scecina 47
Southport 66, Indianapolis Washington 51
Southport 62, Indianapolis Manual 54
Indianapolis Roncalli 63, Indiana Deaf 40
Southport 50, Indianapolis Roncalli 46 (final)

Richmond
Richmond 63, Union County 44
Franklin County 60, Seton Catholic 28
Centerville 58, Northeastern 50
Centerville 51, Franklin County 50
Richmond 62, Connersville 51
Richmond 61, Centerville 45 (final)

Northview
Turkey Run 51, South Vermillion 45
Terre Haute North 53, Rockville 50
Terre Haute North 61, Turkey Run 36
Northview 70, Riverton Parke 40
Terre Haute North 49, Northview 48 (final)

Franklin Central
New Palestine 60, Triton Central 53
Warren Central 61, Beech Grove 53
Franklin Central 69, University 37
Warren Central 56, Franklin Central 50
New Palestine 56, Indianapolis Lutheran 53
Warren Central 63, New Palestine 47 (final)

Danville
Greencastle 62, South Putnam 44
Cloverdale 58, Cascade 56
Greencastle 60, Cloverdale 53
Danville 77, North Putnam 37
Danville 63, Greencastle 50 (final)

Mooresville
Mooresville 63, Decatur Central 59
Plainfield 75, Avon 53
Plainfield 70, Mooresville 62
Monrovia 79, Eminence 55
Plainfield 82, Monrovia 59 (final)

Franklin
Center Grove 55, Whiteland 44
Perry Meridian 66, Franklin 51
Greenwood 75, Greenwood Christian 35
Perry Meridian 68, Greenwood 48
Center Grove 76, Indian Creek 53
Perry Meridian 63, Center Grove 61 (final)

Columbus North
Hauser 76, Southwestern (Shelbyville) 41
Waldron 60, Edinburgh 47
Hauser 72, Waldron 54
Columbus North 56, Shelbyville 50
Hauser 63, Columbus North 58 (final)

Greensburg
Jac-Cen-Del 70, South Decatur 52
Batesville 62, North Decatur 43
Batesville 67, Jac-Cen-Del 57
Greensburg 73, Oldenburg Academy 48
Batesville 66, Greensburg 51 (final)

Sullivan
Sullivan 69, Terre Haute Holy Cross 40
Terre Haute South 75, North Central (Farmersburg) 44
Shakamak 65, Clay City 55
West Vigo 68, Sullivan 50
Terre Haute South 75, Shakamak 52
Terre Haute South 74, West Vigo 54 (final)

Bloomington South
Bloomington South 63, Martinsville 43
Bloomington North 70, Owen Valley 58
Bloomington South 62, Bloomington North 49
Edgewood 77, Brown County 50
Bloomington South 62, Edgewood 53

East Central
East Central 63, South Ripley 42
Rising Sun 63, Milan 50
East Central 60, Rising Sun 42
Lawrenceburg 56, South Dearborn 44
East Central 58, Lawrenceburg 52 (final)

White River Valley
White River Valley 51, Eastern Greene 38
Bloomfield 61, Union (Dugger) 38
Bloomfield 42, White River Valley 39
North Daviess 69, Linton-Stockton 40
North Daviess 50, Bloomfield 39 (final)

Seymour
Jennings County 78, Medora 32
Brownstown Central 70, Crothersville 42
Columbus East 66, Seymour 55
Jennings County 69, Trinity Lutheran 43
Columbus East 62, Brownstown Central 48
Columbus East 61, Jennings County 54 (final)

Madison
Southwestern (Hanover) 60, New Washington 49
Switzerland County 50, Shawe Memorial 41
Switzerland County 58, Southwestern (Hanover) 54
Charlestown 62, Madison 55
Charlestown 60, Switzerland County 50 (final)

Washington
South Knox 73, Washington Catholic 53
Washington 69, Vincennes Rivet 47
Washington 74, South Knox 51
Vincennes Lincoln 59, North Knox 41
Washington 68, Vincennes Lincoln 47 (final)

Bedford
Mitchell 52, Springs Valley 43
Orleans 55, BNL 52
Orleans 58, Mitchell 43
Paoli 66, West Washington 53
Orleans 57, Paoli 54 (final)

Scottsburg
Eastern (Pekin) 68, Austin 52
Salem 69, Henryville 47
Salem 67, Eastern (Pekin) 61
Borden 62, Scottsburg 61
Salem 64, Borden 55 (final)

Jasper
Northeast Dubois 67, Shoals 36
Barr-Reeve 55, Loogootee 39
Barr-Reeve 53, Northeast Dubois 50
Jasper 55, Southridge 46
Jasper 56, Barr-Reeve 52 (final)

New Albany
Providence 52, Clarksville 41
Silver Creek 65, Christian Academy 58
New Albany 84, Rock Creek Christian 44
New Albany 78, Silver Creek 52
Jeffersonville 50, Providence 45
New Albany 70, Jeffersonville 51 (final)

Princeton
Tecumseh 53, Wood Memorial 44
Gibson Southern 51, Boonville 50
Tecumseh 49, Gibson Southern 40
Princeton 66, Pike Central 48
Princeton 61, Tecumseh 55 (final)

Floyd Central
Floyd Central 58, Corydon Central 54
Lanesville 59, North Harrison 50
Lanesville 57, Floyd Central 54
Crawford County 64, South Central (Elizabeth) 58
Lanesville 60, Crawford County 56 (final)

Evansville I
Evansville Central 54, North Posey 36
Mount Vernon 70, New Harmony 33
Evansville Central 56, Mount Vernon 44
Evansville Reitz 63, Evansville Mater Dei 54
Evansville Reitz 56, Evansville Central 51 (final)

Heritage Hills
Forest Park 64, Tell City 63
Heritage Hills 60, Perry Central 57
Forest Park 62, Heritage Hills 57
South Spencer 66, Cannelton 46
Forest Park 58, South Spencer 50 (final)

Evansville II
Evansville Harrison 75, Evansville North 65
Evansville Memorial 71, Castle 69
Evansville Memorial 72, Evansville Harrison 63
Evansville Bosse 78, Evansville Day 28
Evansville Memorial 71, Evansville Bosse 60 (final)

Round 2: Regionals (64 teams, 16 sites)

Valparaiso
Knox 57, Boone Grove 54
Chesterton 69, Michigan City 57
Chesterton 71, Knox 51 (final)

South Bend
Westview 56, Plymouth 52
Plymouth 51, South Bend St. Joseph's 50
Plymouth 55, Westview 54 (final)

Merrillville
East Chicago Central 70, Merrillville 63
Gary West 55, Gary Wirt 49
East Chicago Central 69, Gary West 60 (final)

Lafayette
North Miami 58, Seeger 54
Lafayette Jeff 76, Twin Lakes 55
Lafayette Jeff 71, North Miami 53 (final)

Seymour
Bloomington South 58, Columbus East 49
Perry Meridian 67, Hauser 65
Bloomington South 62, Perry Meridian 52 (final)

Franklin Central
Batesville 58, East Central 50
Warren Central 74, Rushville 56
Warren Central 60, Batesville 56 (final)

Frankfort
Carmel 75, Frankfort 52
Tipton 62, North Montgomery 57
Carmel 67, Tipton 51 (final)

Lawrence North
Indianapolis Cathedral 58, Brownsburg 51
North Central (Indianapolis) 66, Southport 60
Indianapolis Cathedral 68, North Central (Indianapolis) 63 (final)

Terre Haute
Terre Haute South 68, Plainfield 67
Terre Haute North 52, Danville 51
Terre Haute South 59, Terre Haute North 46 (final)

Jeffersonville
Salem 64, Lanesville 52
New Albany 70, Charlestown 52
New Albany 72, Salem 54 (final)

Washington
Orleans 53, North Daviess 49
Washington 67, Jasper 52
Washington 59, Orleans 48 (final)

Evansville
Evansville Reitz 65, Princeton 57
Evansville Memorial 77, Forest Park 57
Evansville Memorial 67, Evansville Reitz 63 (final)

New Castle
Richmond 61, Anderson Highland 56
New Castle 55, Anderson 54
New Castle 56, Richmond 49 (final)

East Noble
Harding 66, Lakeland 54
Fort Wayne Dwenger 53, DeKalb 43
Harding 62, Fort Wayne Dwenger 61 (final)

Fort Wayne
Winchester 55, Bluffton 51
Fort Wayne South 61, Warsaw 55
Fort Wayne South 59, Winchester 54 (final)

Marion
Muncie Central 56, Rochester 50
Marion 62, Northfield 42
Marion 57, Muncie Central 50 (final)

Round 3: Semistates (16 teams, 4 sites)

Lafayette
Chesterton 59, Plymouth 55
Lafayette Jeff 77, East Chicago Central 76
Lafayette Jeff 73, Chesterton 68 (final)

Indianapolis
Bloomington South 54, Warren Central 51
Carmel 66, Indianapolis Cathedral 62
Carmel 61, Bloomington South 57 (final)

Evansville
New Albany 67, Terre Haute South 60
Evansville Memorial 66, Washington 64
New Albany 70, Evansville Memorial 66 (final)

Fort Wayne
Harding 58, New Castle 57
Marion 59, Fort Wayne South 54
Marion 63, Harding 58 (final)

Final Four (Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis)

Carmel 73, Lafayette Jeff 66
New Albany 63, Marion 58
Carmel 66, New Albany 65 (final)

Friday, February 29, 2008

A quick review of/preview of sectional championships

A roundup of thoughts before Saturday's sectional championships:

1. I wrote in this space earlier this week that Borden and Vincennes Rivet had solid chances to win their first sectional titles, while Indianapolis Lutheran was a virtual lock to win its first. While Rivet was eliminated by Barr-Reeve (who then turned around and defeated a 20-win North Daviess squad that entered the tournament as Class A #1), Borden and Lutheran are still alive.

Borden's Braves (17-5) face 9-14 South Central on Saturday night. Borden beat the Rebels by 12 in December.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis Lutheran improved to 18-4 with its semifinal win over Indianapolis Tindley. The only team standing between the Saints and their first sectional title is 8-14 University.

Borden and Lutheran aren't the only teams remaining with a chance to win their first sectional crowns on Saturday night, though:

* Carroll (Flora) is still alive (see below).

* So is Fort Wayne Canterbury, who faces Fort Wayne Blackhawk for that sectional's championship.

* Churubusco will play on Saturday, but only by virtue of their Friday night semifinal against Prairie Heights being postponed to Saturday due to a winter storm. The Eagles are 1-19 heading into semifinal play.

* New Harmony, who played a major role in determining this year's WW Boys Team of the Year (more to come in a later post), faces powerhouse Tecumseh for the Sectional 64 title.

* Lastly, Covenant Christian, one of the IHSAA's newer basketball playing schools, has a solid chance to grab its first sectional championship. The 15-6 Warriors, who'd only managed 6 wins in the previous two years, face 10-12 Tri-West for the Class 2A Sectional 46 title. Myself - I question the strength of their 15 wins, as many of them have come against schools in their class or smaller, while Tri-West didn't play a single Class A school all season.

2. I also wrote that Seeger's 30-year sectional championship drought would be the longest one broken this year. While the 18-3 Patriots are still alive and face 9-12 Carroll (Flora) - a school looking for its first sectional crown - for their sectional's championship, there are several other teams with longer droughts who could prove me wrong.

Perhaps the best story - and one I overlooked when examining the draw - is 10-11 Morton Memorial. The Tigers have the second-longest drought in the state at 55 years, but that's irrelevant in the bigger picture.

Morton Memorial is a high school on the grounds of the Indiana Soldiers and Sailors Children's Home, established in the late 1800s by then-Governor Morton. Formerly an orphanage for the children of veterans' families, the ISSCH is essentially a boarding school environment that gives the at-risk youth of Indiana a chance to succeed where otherwise they might not have had the opportunity. Its mission is about so much more than basketball, but who knows what kind of athletic success can turn around a kid's life?

On the court, the Tigers had a pretty favorable sectional draw, opening with a big win against one of the state's weaker teams in Greenwood Christian before avenging a close loss to Southwestern (Shelbyville). Morton Memorial faces 13-8 Waldron for the sectional championship. (As a side note, Waldron is the only team in state history to go undefeated one season - in 2003-04 - and winless the next.)

Four other teams with designs on breaking their long sectional droughts on Saturday night are Wabash, Elwood, Union (Modoc) and Union County.

Wabash, as you may recall, was part of an answer to one of my earlier trivia questions, having won over 20 sectional championships in the pre-class era, but none since the move to class hoops, and none since 1967. The 6-16 Apaches face 13-8 Northfield for their sectional's title on Saturday; the Norsemen beat Wabash by 19 during the regular season. (Winless Watch would love to do the pre-game tease for this one: "Apaches! Norsemen! NEXT!")

11-10 Elwood also advanced to a sectional championship, but have a tough road ahead, facing perennial power Winchester, who sits at 19-3 heading into Saturday. Elwood hasn't won a sectional crown in 48 years.

Meanwhile, Union (Modoc) brought a 6-14 record into sectionals, but snagged two wins this week to set up a rematch against Monroe Central. Unfortunately for the Rockets, who last won a championship in 1970, Monroe Central has beaten them soundly on two occasions this season, including a 52-point walloping in January. Will the third time be the charm for Union? Winless Watch would like to think so, but ... we'll see.

The only other drought longer than 25 years that could come to an end on Saturday night is Union County's. The Patriots won three sectional crowns in a span of four seasons between 1976 and 1979, but none since. Union County takes a 12-10 record into Saturday night's title tilt against Eastern Hancock, who sports a 14-9 mark.

3. Apropos of nothing in particular, part 1:

Several teams who started the week with fewer than 5 wins on the season still have the chance to make their seasons successful: Elkhart Central (4-17 going into sectionals), Loogootee (3-17), Tri-Central (3-17), New Prairie (3-18), Fort Wayne Elmhurst (5-14), Vincennes Lincoln (5-14), Wabash (4-16), North White (3-17), Springs Valley (4-16) and New Harmony (3-18) all will play for sectional titles on Saturday night. Why do I like Loogootee's chances the best of all of them?

4. Apropos of nothing in particular, part 2:

While researching Crothersville's season and history this week, I noted that their coach, Jim Stewart, has a career mark of 257-546. 546 losses! I wonder if that's some kind of state record. I believe Stewart coached for a long while at Medora, which goes a long way toward explaining his 31% winning percentage.

Anyway, good luck to all of the teams still playing; 2/3 of the schools in the state have seen their seasons end, and would love to trade places with you.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

WW's best bets for sectional week:

A couple of final opinions, projections and thoughts before kicking off sectional week:

Longest drought to be broken this year: Seeger has gone 30 years since its last sectional title, but is by far the strongest team in the 5-team Fountain Central Sectional (Sectional 37, for those of you who keep track of such numbering schemes). The Patriots are the only team with a winning record in that sectional, and as if that weren't enough, they also drew the bye. WW says to look for Seeger to win its first sectional championship since 1978.

Best bet for #1: There are three solid teams who've never won a sectional but could possibly cut the nets for the first time this week. Vincennes Rivet, whose girls just won their first sectional crown (congratulations!), has a fairly tough road to take at Loogootee, drawing a strong Barr-Reeve team in the opener; if they survive the Vikings, they'll likely face the best team North Daviess has ever had (19-2, on a 14-game winning streak).

Borden's odds are a little better; not only do they host, but they open against sub-.500 Henryville, and if they're successful, they'll face the winner of Christian Academy and Lanesville in the semifinal in what Winless Watch thinks would be the de facto sectional championship, as the three teams other side of the bracket have combined for a 22-37 record (led by Rock Creek Christian's 11-10 mark).

But it says here that Indianapolis Lutheran is a virtual lock to snag its first sectional crown; they've already scored a 25-point win against the only other team with a winning record in its sectional, Indiana Deaf. The 16-4 Saints drew Tindley in the bye game of their own sectional; the other four teams on the opposite side of the bracket have a combined record of 31-45. If betting on high school sports were legal in Indiana, putting a healthy wager down on the Saints definitely wouldn't be the worst bet you could make this week.

(That three-team teaser you've been eyeing with Crothersville, New Harmony and White's, on the other hand … I'd hold off on that one.)

Sectional droughts.

While the number of first-time sectional champions grows every year, so, too, does the list of schools that have never won a sectional championship. It's a paradox that's easy to explain – just consider the increase in private schools and charter schools joining the IHSAA and fielding basketball teams for the first time.

Without considering that, it's easy to say, "Oh, Trinity Lutheran (for instance) has never won a sectional championship – it must be awful, to endure such a drought!" Yes, it must be awful, the pain that goes with having never won a championship in the only two seasons you've been in existence. You could be, say, Winless Watch's alma mater, Shoals, who've been playing for almost 100 years.

So, when compiling the below list, I broke up the "never wons" into two groups:

Group I is composed of the legacy schools. These schools have been at it for decades, and have never cut down the nets on Saturday night. There are 24 of these schools remaining on the "never won a sectional" ledger.

Group II of the "never wons" are the newer schools. These tend to be, but aren't always, your private/parochial/charter schools that have sprung up like mushrooms in the last 10 years (XYZ Christian, ABC Academy, etc.) that, for better or for worse, have become members of the IHSAA and started reaching for that athletic brass ring.

I figured it was important to delineate between the two groups, to give the first group its proper due and recognize their true futility.

Anyway, this is the best I could gather from John Harrell's site. If I made an error or missed your school, I apologize – I compiled this list by hand and didn't really have a sanity check in place.

Never – Group I (legacy schools): Borden, Carroll (Flora), Churubusco, Crothersville, Culver Academy, Evansville Day, FW Canterbury, FW Keystone, Franklin County, Frankton, Hamilton Southeastern, Indiana Deaf, Indianapolis Lutheran, Lake Station, Michigan City, New Harmony, Northeastern, Shoals, Vincennes Rivet, Washington Twp., West Noble, Westfield, Westville, White's

Never – Group II (newer schools – less than 10 years of basketball)- Bowman Academy, Bethesda Christian, Clinton Christian, Covenant Christian, Elkhart Christian, Fall Creek 21st Century, Fishers*, Greenwood Christian, Guerin Catholic, Indianapolis International, Indianapolis Metropolitan, Indianapolis Tindley, Lakewood Park, Liberty Christian, Oldenburg Academy, Rock Creek Christian, Seton Catholic, Terre Haute Holy Cross, Trinity Lutheran

* - I struggled with whether to include Fishers, which actually won a sectional in its first incarnation in 1922, but Fishers v. 2.0 has been open only in the last couple of years. The original Fishers High School closed in the mid-60s and was consolidated into Hamilton Southeastern.

And now, the droughts:

1949 – 59 years: Medora

1953 – 55 years: Morton Memorial

1954 – 54 years: Mississinewa

1956 – 52 years: Eastern (Greentown)

1958 – 50 years: Howe Military

1960 – 48 years: Elwood

1961 – 47 years: Cambridge City Lincoln

1965 - 43 years: Hagerstown

1966 – 42 years: North Posey

1967 – 41 years: Wabash

1968 – 40 years: North Miami

1969 – 39 years: Mishawaka Marian

1970 – 38 years: Union (Modoc)

1973 – 35 years: Edinburgh, Griffith

1976 – 32 years: Clay City, Cowan, Hammond Morton

1978 – 30 years: Indianapolis Tech, North Newton, Seeger

1979 – 29 years: Union County

1981 – 27 years: Whiting

1982 – 26 years: Clinton Prairie, Linton

1983 – 25 years: Clinton Central, Sheridan

1984 – 24 years: Boonville, North White, Union City

1985 – 23 years: Culver, Daleville

1986 – 22 years: Clarksville, Hanover Central, Indianapolis Broad Ripple, LaVille, Mishawaka, South Vermillion

1987 – 21 years: Chesterton

1988 – 20 years: Mt. Vernon (Posey)

1989 – 19 years: Crawfordsville, Floyd Central, Frontier

1990 – 18 years: West Vigo, Wood Memorial

1991 – 17 years: Anderson Highland, Blackford, East Central, Fountain Central, LaCrosse, Tri-West

1992 – 16 years: Beech Grove, Goshen, Hobart, Indianapolis Manual, Kankakee Valley, Seymour, Turkey Run

1993 – 15 years: Lowell, South Adams, Tell City, Washington Catholic

1994 – 14 years: Center Grove, FW Wayne, Southmont

1995 – 13 years: Indianapolis Washington, Manchester, Norwell, South Dearborn, Zionsville

1996 – 12 years: Columbus East, Evansville Memorial, Gary Wallace, Logansport, Madison-Grant, New Haven, North Harrison, North Judson, Richmond , West Washington

1997 – 11 years: Brownsburg, Columbus North, Connersville, FW Dwenger, Frankfort, Lake Central, Mitchell, New Palestine, Noblesville, Perry Central, Pike Central, Woodlan

(Class basketball era begins here – schools in boldface are schools who won their first sectional championships after class basketball began)

1998 – 10 years: Cannelton, Crown Point, Eastbrook, Evansville North, Greenfield-Central, Heritage, Indianapolis Cathedral, Lawrence Central, Mooresville, Peru, Rising Sun, South Spencer, Southwestern (Hanover), Springs Valley, Yorktown

1999 – 9 years: Alexandria, Angola, Bremen, Christian Academy, Harrison (Lafayette), Mt. Vernon (Fortville), North Vermillion, Plainfield, Wapahani,

2000 – 8 years: Calumet, Charlestown, Indian Creek, Maconaquah, Michigan City Marquette, Monrovia, Munster, Princeton, Silver Creek, Southern Wells, Southport, Southwood, Union (Dugger), Warren Central, West Lafayette, Western Boone

2001 – 7 years: Adams Central, Attica, Bedford North Lawrence, East Noble, Eastern (Pekin), Greensburg, Hamilton, Huntington North, Muncie South, New Washington, Northeast Dubois, Oak Hill, Portage, Randolph Southern, River Forest, Shelbyville, South Bend St. Joseph's, South Newton, Tipton, Whitko

2002 – 6 years: Anderson, Avon, Benton Central, Bethany Christian, Castle, Crawford County, Elkhart Memorial, Gibson Southern, Greenwood, Homestead, Indianapolis Arlington, Jasper, Kouts, Lakeview Christian, Lebanon, Leo, North Putnam, Paoli, Pioneer, Rockville, Rossville, South Bend Washington, South Central (Elizabeth), Speedway, Whiteland, Winamac

2003 – 5 years: Ben Davis, Brown County, Caston, Central Noble, Eastern Hancock, Elkhart Central, FW Northrop, Gary Roosevelt, Hamilton Heights, Heritage Hills, Highland, Indianapolis Scecina, Lakeland, Merrillville, Milan, Muncie Burris, New Prairie, Perry Meridian, Salem, South Bend Riley, South Central (Union Mills), South Putnam, Southwestern (Shelby), Sullivan, Triton

2004 – 4 years: Bloomington North, Bluffton, Brownstown Central, Columbia City, Corydon Central, Delphi, Evansville Central, FW Elmhurst, Garrett, Greencastle, Hammond Gavit, Hammond Noll, Indianapolis Chatard, Indianapolis Northwest, Indianapolis Ritter, Jimtown, Knox, Lafayette Jeff, Monroe Central, North Knox, Northridge, Northview, Pendleton Heights, South Ripley, Triton Central, Vincennes Lincoln, Waldron, White River Valley

2005 – 3 years: Argos, Austin, Bellmont, Bloomfield, Concord, Decatur Central, DeKalb, Delta, FW North, Fremont, Gary West, Hammond, Henryville, Jennings County, John Glenn, Kokomo, Lapel, Loogootee, North Decatur, Northfield, Rensselaer Central, Rushville, Scottsburg, South Bend Clay, South Decatur, Terre Haute South, Tri, Twin Lakes, West Central,

2006 – 2 years: Andrean, Boone Grove, Carmel, Cascade, Centerville, Danville, Eastern Greene, Evansville Harrison, Evansville Mater Dei, Forest Park, FW Concordia, FW Snider, Franklin, Hauser, Hebron, Heritage Christian, Indianapolis Roncalli, Jeffersonville, Knightstown, LaPorte, Martinsville, McCutcheon, North Daviess, Owen Valley, Prairie Heights, Riverton Parke, Shakamak, Shawe Memorial, Switzerland County, Taylor, Tri-Central, University, Warsaw, Wawasee, Westview

2007 – 1 year: Barr-Reeve, Batesville, Bloomington South, Blue River, Brebeuf, Carroll (FW), Cloverdale, Covington, East Chicago Central, Eastside, Edgewood, Eminence, Evansville Bosse, Evansville Reitz, Fairfield, FW Blackhawk, FW Luers, FW South, Franklin Central, Gary Wirt, Hammond Clark, Harding, Indianapolis Howe, Jac-Cen-Del, Jay County, Lafayette Central Catholic, Lanesville, Lawrence North, Lawrenceburg, Lewis Cass, Madison, Marion, Morgan Twp., Morristown, Muncie Central, New Albany, New Castle, North Central (Farmersburg), North Central (Indianapolis), North Montgomery, Northwestern, NorthWood, Oregon-Davis, Orleans, Park Tudor, Penn, Pike, Plymouth, Providence, Rochester, Shenandoah, South Bend Adams, South Knox, Southridge, Tecumseh, Terre Haute North, Tippecanoe Valley, Tri-County, Valparaiso, Washington, Wes-Del, Western, Wheeler, Winchester

Quiz answers:

Answers to last week's quiz:

1. Medora has the longest drought since its last sectional title. The Hornets cut down the nets for the only time in their history in 1949 - 59 years ago.

2. Five schools have gone 50+ years since their last sectional crown: Medora (1949), Morton Memorial (1953), Mississinewa (1954), Eastern (Howard) (1956), and Howe Military (1958).

3. The move to class basketball hasn't been very good to Richmond. The Red Devils, who last won a sectional in 1996, won 62 championships in the pre-1997 era, but none since the state switched to class hoops. (No opinions here about how it's easier to beat up on Hagerstown and Centerville than Anderson and Muncie Central, only the facts.)

4. Including Richmond, 10 schools won 20 or more sectional championships in the pre-class days, but haven't won a title since: Richmond (62 sectionals), Connersville (57), Logansport (56), Frankfort (46), Seymour (44), Crawfordsville (40), Tell City (34), Wabash (26), Boonville (23) and Linton (21). (Of note: the '70s, '80s and '90s weren't good to Wabash, either, as the last of the Apaches' 26 titles came in 1967.)

5. In 1997 - the last year under the single-class system - one school won its first sectional title, and hasn't won another championship since. That year, Pike Central won both its only sectional title and only regional title in school history.